Short commentary on Ballot Box problem
One of the problem in elementary course in probability is the ballot box problem. The statement of the problem goes as something "There are two candidates A and B competing in an election, where after counting it is found that A has won the election. Now if we recount it what is the probability that we will find at least a tie". The easiest way to think about this will be to conjure some numbers. Let there were 5 votes and out of 5 A had 3 and B had 2. We know from multinomial theorem that 5 things (when 3 are of same type and 2 are of other) can be arranged in 5!/(3! 2!) =10.
Lets list all those 10 possibilities
Lets list all those 10 possibilities
- AAABB (Bs together)
- AABAB (Moving 1 B and keeping other fixed)
- ABAAB (Moving 1 B and keeping other fixed)
- BAAAB (Moving 1 B and keeping other fixed) (Bs on both extreme)
- BAABA (Moving the other B and keeping the other fixed)
- BABAA (Moving the other B and keeping the other fixed)
- AABBA (Bs together)
- ABBAA (Bs together)
- BBAAA (Bs together)
- ABBAA (As on both extreme)
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